Motivation Since I started my own running data dashboard, I’ve been gradually adding my own custom features that I find useful for my training objectives. One bit of analysis I’ve always wanted to do is model my fitness with the overarching objective of generating accurate race time predictions (or at least more accurate than Garmin’s which I’m wildly sceptical of).
Modelling fitness isn’t too hard - you can simply look at your pace per heart rate for a rough guide - however, predicting race times is a lot more involved.